ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033
Seattle, WA August 4, 1995
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de KT7H
Solar activity is in the doldrums. We are close to the bottom of the current sunspot cycle, and there is very little activity. Geomagnetic activity is also very low, which is normally good news, but the solar flux is so low that propagation at higher frequencies is suppressed.
There were no sunspots last Friday, Saturday and Sunday, July 28, 29 and 30. Solar flux was below the 90 day average of 75 every day last week, and the average was four points below the average for the previous 90 days.
Solar flux should rise slightly to a very low peak around 80 between August 8 and 12, then gradually slide back to current levels from August 18 through the end of the month. Recurring coronal holes should cause an upset around August 12 through 14.
Sunspot Numbers for July 27 through August 2 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 15, 20 and 24, with a mean of 10.1. 10.7 cm flux was 70.4, 70.4, 69.8, 69.7, 70.8, 72.6 and 73.5, with a mean of 71.0.
Path projections for this week are to Cyprus from San Francisco, Dallas and New York City.
From San Francisco 30 meters should open from 0230 to 0330z and 20 meters from 0330 to 0630. 17 meters may open some days from 1800 to 2200.
From Dallas 80 meters should open from 0130 to 0245z, 40 meters from 0100 to 0330 and 30 meters from 0000 to 0430. 20 meters should be good from 0330 to 0530. On a few days 17 meters may open from 1600 to 2230.
From New York 80 meters should be good from 0000 to 0300z, 40 meters from 2300 to 0330 and 30 meters from 2130 to 0500. 20 meters should be open from 1700 to 0030, with the best period from 2100 to 2330. On some days there may be a 17 meter opening from 1830 to 2100.
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/EX