ZCZC AP90
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
Seattle, WA May 19, 1995
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity was up last week an average of over 10 points from the week previous, and is now in the nineties. The geomagnetic field has been stormy over the past few days, and this may continue over the next week. Look for more stable conditions by May 26, and a rise in disturbed conditions again by the end of the month. We may see some very quiet and stable conditions from June 7-9. Look for solar flux to remain high, and drop below 80 again after the first of June.

Latest figures show that we are near the bottom of the current solar cycle. Minimum sunspot and flux values should occur next year. Expect values rising beyond current conditions around two years from now.

Sunspot Numbers for May 11 through 17 were 28, 42, 70, 68, 74, 77 and 59, with a mean of 59.7. 10.7 cm flux was 76.8, 80.8, 80.5, 79.9, 85.9, 93.8 and 95.2, with a mean of 84.7.

The path projection for this week is to Australia from Eugene, Oregon, Edmonton, Alberta, and New Orleans, Louisiana.

From Eugene 80 meters looks good from 0930z to 1300z, 40 meters from 0830z to 1400z and 30 meters from 0730z to 1500z. 20 meters should be open from 0530z to 0900z every day and for another hour on some days. Check 17 meters from 0400z to 0800z. On some days 15 meters may be open around 0500z.

From Edmonton 80 meters should be open around 1000z to 1200z and 40 meters from 0830z to 1300z. 30 meters looks good form 0730z to 1430z, and 20 meters from 0600z to 0830z and on many days for another one to three hours. On some days 17 meters may open from 0430z to 0700z.

From New Orleans 80 meters should be open from 0830z to 1100z, 40 meters from 0800z to 1130z and 30 meters from 0700z to 1230z. 20 meters should be good from 0500z to 0900z, and 17 meters from 0100z to 0700z. 15 meters should be quite strong from 2300z to 0600z, with the strongest signals toward the end of the period. On some days 12 meters will be open from 2200z to 0530z, with the best shots at an opening around 0030z and 0300z. 10 meters may be open on some days around 0300z to 0400z.

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/EX