QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA March 15, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de KT7H
Solar flux and sunspot numbers were about the same last week as the week previous. March 11 was quite disturbed, with the K index as high as 6 and an A index of 28 for the day. Conditions are expected to become unsettled again through March 17, and again on March 22 and 23 and April 6 and 7.
Expect solar flux values to continue to drift between 70 and 75 here at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. The latest projection from the NOAA Space Environment Service Center shows the sunspot number bottoming out between April and June of this year, and the solar flux reaching minimum between December of this year and February of 1997. For the solar flux, this is a bit sooner than any previously forecast. Two years out look for average flux values about 20 points higher than they are now, perhaps in the mid to high nineties.
Sunspot Numbers for March 7 through 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, 27 and 24, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 67.8, 69.8, 67.5, 69.1, 71.8, 73.2 and 71.3, with a mean of 70.1.
The path projections for this week are from the center of the U.S. to Western Europe, Southern Africa, South America, South Pacific and Japan.
To Western Europe look for 80 meters to open from 0030z to 0700z, 40 meters from 2330z to 0700z and 30 meters around 2100z. 20 meters looks good from 1430z to 2000z, and 17 meters around 1800z.
To Southern Africa expect 80 to open from 0100z to 0400z, 40 from 0030z to 0430z, 30 from 2300z to 0230z, 20 from 2000z to 2300z, 17 from 1700z to 1930z and 15 from 1800z to 1900z.
To South America check 80 from 0100z to 1000z, 40 from 0000z to 1030z, 30 from 2300z to 1030z with a weak period around 0900z, 20 from 2000z to 0200z, 17 from 1430z to 0100z and 15 from 1600z to 2230z.
To South Pacific 80 should open from 0600z to 1300z, 40 from 0500z to 1400z, 30 from 0400z to 1430z, 20 around 1700z to 1830z and 0130z to 0330z, 17 from 1730z to 0100z and 15 from 1800z to 2300z.
To Japan check 80 from 0900z to 1300z, 40 from 0830z to 1400z, 30 from 1330z to 1530z and again around 0700z, 20 from 2100z to 0130z and 17 from 2200z to 0000z.