QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA January 5, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de KT7H
Back from vacation in Bahia, Brazil, your author is tanned, rested and ready for another year of propagation and solar observation. It is currently Summer south of the equator, and it was interesting to listen to the HF bands from PY6LA, with formerly distant stations suddenly local.
In the northern hemisphere it is Winter, and we can expect 20 meters to still be the best band for worldwide communications during the day, peaking right after sunrise and again in the late afternoon. 30 and 40 meters should be good for DX in the late afternoon, along with 80 meters after dark. Low Winter static levels are a good factor for low frequency communications at this time.
Over January look for the solar flux to gradually drop toward the low seventies by the 10th and back to the mid seventies by the end of the month. The only disturbance should be around January 20, caused by recurring coronal holes.
Over the past few weeks average solar flux has been rising, but only a little. Last week was the first period in awhile where the average flux was above the average for the previous 90 days.
Sunspot Numbers for December 14 through 20 were 13, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 11, with a mean of 5. 10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 70.2, 69.9, 69.3, 68.6, 69.2 and 70, with a mean of 69.6.
Sunspot Numbers for December 21 through 27 were 12, 13, 11, 0, 25, 40 and 37, with a mean of 19.7. 10.7 cm flux was 70, 71.2, 72.3, 72.2, 72.5, 74.1 and 74, with a mean of 72.3.
Sunspot Numbers for December 28 through January 3 were 23, 25, 12, 34, 25, 34 and 30, with a mean of 26.1. 10.7 cm flux was 76, 76.4, 75.3, 75.1, 75.1, 74.8 and 80.8, with a mean of 76.2.