ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 24, 2003
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7VVV
Daily sunspot numbers and solar flux were down again this week. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week were down by over 43 points and average daily solar flux dropped by more than 37 points. Current geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active, with the planetary A index for the past four days of the reporting period (through January 22) at 16, 17, 17 and 17. On Thursday it rose to 19, and it should stay unsettled for a few more days. The planetary A index for Friday through Monday is predicted at 20, 15, 20 and 15.
Solar flux should decline for a few more days. Flux values predicted for Friday through Monday are 135, 130, 125 and 125. Sunday and Monday should have the minimum solar flux and sunspot numbers for the near term, and then are expected to rise to a short-term peak around February 6 or 7.
Jim Tabor, KU5S sends along an offer to try a neat new program he's written for Windows. The program automatically checks current solar flux, sunspot, A index and K index numbers over the internet and displays them along with one-word summaries of solar and geomagnetic activity over the past 24 hours and the next 24 hours in a little window on your PC desktop.
It is called Geo-Alert Wizard, and is available for free trial with a license that expires May 20. You can download it at http://www.taborsoft.com . Check out other tools that Jim has for radio propagation, and don't miss an article about Ioncap propagation software at http://www.taborsoft.com/w0omi/w0omi.shtml . Also check out Jim's personal web site at http://www.wtrt.net/~ku5s/ .
Sunspot numbers for January 16 through 22 were 135, 150, 148, 168, 184, 167, and 152, with a mean of 157.7. 10.7 cm flux was 144.6, 141.7, 137.4, 130.2, 138, 133.6, and 129.5, with a mean of 136.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 12, 16, 17, 17, and 17, with a mean of 13.4.