ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 17, 2003
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar flux and sunspot numbers peaked early in the week and are headed downward again. Average daily solar flux rose to 173.6 this week from 149.4 last, and sunspot number averages went from 137.9 to 200.9.
Activity should continue declining, with Friday through Monday values of 140, 135, 135 and 125, reaching a minimum around 115 from January 25-28. Geomagnetic activity for the near term is predicted to be quiet to unsettled.
You can see the general downward trend in activity in the charts at http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/past_cycle.shtml . There is tremendous variability, but the overall trend is pretty clear.
Over the next few years we'll see a dramatic drop. Current projections from NOAA show the minimum solar flux between September 2006 and April, 2007, and sunspot minimum around December 2006 to January 2007.
Sunspot numbers for January 9 through 15 were 206, 199, 238, 232, 182, 176, and 173, with a mean of 200.9. 10.7 cm flux was 182.9, 184.7, 188.8, 173.4, 171.8, 164, and 149.9, with a mean of 173.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 10, 10, 11, 8, 10, and 8, with a mean of 9.1.