ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 27, 2002
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7VVV
This is a shortened propagation bulletin due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The solar and geomagnetic data normally in this bulletin should appear Monday, December 2 in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050.
Active geomagnetic conditions plagued the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes, although participants tell me that Sunday improved over Saturday. Sunspot counts and solar flux declined quite markedly, with Monday's solar flux of 137 the lowest since October 2.
On Sunday a coronal mass ejection erupted, and this could cause some disruption over the next few days. A cloud of energy swept past earth at 2150z on Tuesday and met a south-tilting interplanetary magnetic field, indicating more geomagnetic instability to come.
Currently the predicted planetary A index for Wednesday through Saturday is 20, 15, 15 and 12. Solar flux will likely rise again, with predicted flux values of 145, 150, 155 and 160 for the same period. Solar flux is expected to rise to just shy of 200 by mid-December.