ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
From Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
Fort Wayne, IN October 25, 2002
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K9LA
Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA is filling in this week for Tad Cook, K7VVV.
This report is for the period Friday October 18 through Thursday October 24.
Geomagnetic field activity for the first 5 days of the reporting period was quiet to unsettled. This increased to major storm level at the end of the period, which was fueled by high speed solar wind emanating from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.
There were no significant proton events during the period.
X-ray flare activity during the period ranged from low to moderate. The largest flares were M1 events on Sunday and Tuesday. These flares did not cause any significant radio blackouts.
Remember the book "Storms from the Sun" by Carlowicz and Lopez that was discussed in the two previous bulletins? In addition to getting information about this book at the referenced web site, check out the review of it in the December 2002 issue of "Sky & Telescope."
This weekend is the CQ World Wide DX Phone contest. Propagation is generally expected to be very good. There is a chance of geomagnetic field activity at the minor storm level at the start of the contest, but it is expected to subside after that.
There is also a chance of an X class X-ray flare from Region 162, which could cause a short-term blackout on the daylight side of the Earth. Remember this is all a roll of the dice, so be sure to jump in and have fun working lots of DX!
Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23 were 215, 200, 156, 179, 139, 132, and 116, with a mean of 162.4. 10.7 cm flux was 178.9, 172.6, 179.5, 180.3, 182.5, 169.4, and 163.6, with a mean of 175.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 11, 10, 11, 12, and 10, with a mean of 11.1.