ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 26, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7VVV
Last week's bulletin came out a couple of days early because of the holiday. This bulletin has the data that was missing from last week's bulletin.
For the reporting week, which ended last Wednesday, average daily sunspot numbers were down nearly 52 points and average solar flux was off over 45 points. The decline continued for the past few days, with solar flux dropping to 177, 173 and 170. Solar flux should be at a short-term minimum about now. Solar flux for this Monday through Friday is projected at 170, 170, 175, 185 and 190.
A powerful geomagnetic storm raged this weekend, disrupting HF contest activity and producing more aurora displays. This was caused by two coronal mass ejections, and the effects were felt around 0530z on November 24. The planetary K index reached 9, indicating a severe storm, and the planetary A index for the day was 108. Northern lights were seen as far south as Arkansas and Texas.
A recent holographic image of the sun's far side shows a large sunspot in the southern hemisphere.
Sunspot numbers for November 15 through 21 were 219, 200, 157, 181, 168, 160 and 132 with a mean of 173.9. 10.7 cm flux was 207, 202.1, 198.5, 188.2, 191.3, 185 and 184.2, with a mean of 193.8, and estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 11, 7, 16, 8 and 6 with a mean of 9.