ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 16, 2001

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 16, 2001
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV

Average sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. Daily sunspot number averages were up nearly 48 points, and average solar flux was up nearly 6 points. Geomagnetic indices finally settled down, conditions were quiet, and the planetary A index was in the single digits on every day. Monday was very quiet, with a planetary A index of 2, mid-latitude A index of 1, and both planetary and mid-latitude K indices at 0 or 1 for most of the day. Combined with a rising solar flux, this was a good day for HF propagation.

Solar flux is expected to decline over the next few days. Predicted flux values for Friday through Monday are 205, 205, 195 and 190. Solar flux should rise above 210 again after November 23. There are no geomagnetic disturbances expected over the next few days, which should be good for the ARRL November Phone Sweepstakes this weekend. Besides the contest, this weekend will be good for watching the Leonids meteor shower. This will be one of the best displays in years, and occurs Sunday morning across North America around 0900-1100z, and around California and the Pacific at 1100-1500z.

W1DGM wrote to say he noticed a mistake in last week's bulletin, where the last sentence in paragraph one said the ''planetary A index rose to 8 and then 7 for several three hour reporting periods.'' That should have read ''planetary K index.''

Here are some path projections for this weekend's Sweepstakes contest.

• From the center of the continental U.S.
  • to Atlanta, 80 meters 2030-1530z (best 2330-1200z), 40 meters open all hours, best 0000-1130z, weakest 1600-1930z, 20 meters 1400-0030z, 15 meters 1530-2200z, 10 meters possibly 1700-2000z.
  • To Boston, 80 meters 2200-1300z (best 0100-1100z), 40 meters open always, best 2330-1100z, weakest 1600-1900z, 20 meters 1300-0130z, 15 meters 1400-2230z, 10 meters 1530-2130z.
  • To California, 80 meters 2200-1600z (best 0100-0300z), 40 meters open always, best 0000-0100z, weakest 1800-2000z, 20 meters 1430-0300z, 15 meters 1530-0000z, 10 meters 1700-2230z.
  • To Seattle, 80 meters 2300-1500z, 40 meters all hours, best 0130-1230z, weakest 1730-2030z, 20 meters 1430-0300z, 15 meters 1530-0000z, 10 meters 1700-2230z.
• From Atlanta
  • to Boston, 80 meters open all hours, best 2230-0100z, weakest 1530-1830z, 40 meters open always, best 2230-1100z, weakest 1530-1830z, 20 meters 1300-2300z, 15 meters 1430-2100z, 10 meters possibly 1630-1900z.
  • To California, 80 meters 2330-1330z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0130-1130z, weakest 1530-2130z, 20 meters 1200-0530z, 15 meters 1400-0200z, 10 meters 1500-0000z.
  • To Seattle, 80 meters 2330-1330z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0130-1200z, weakest 1630-2030z, 20 meters 1200-1400z and 1500-0530z, 15 meters 1430-0130z, 10 meters 1500-2330z.
• From Boston
  • to California, 80 meters 2330-1230z, 40 meters 2130-1500z, 20 meters 1400-0100z, 15 meters 1530-2200z, 10 meters 1630-2030z.
  • To Seattle, 80 meters 2300-1300z, 40 meters open always, best 0130-1100z, weakest 1600-2000z, 20 meters 1500-0030z, 15 meters 1600-2200z, 10 meters 1800-2000z.
• From California
  • to Seattle, 80 meters open always, best 0130-1330z, weakest 1830-2130z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0130-0630z, weakest 1800-2230z, 20 meters 1600-0130z, 15 meters 1830-2300z.

Sunspot numbers for November 8 through 14 were 216, 175, 258, 222, 252, 234 and 222 with a mean of 225.6. 10.7 cm flux was 247.8, 270.8, 245.9, 234, 227.3, 231.6 and 217.2, with a mean of 239.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 6, 4, 2, 3 and 3 with a mean of 3.9.