ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 2, 2001

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 2, 2001
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV

Conditions were excellent on HF going into the CQ Worldwide DX SSB Contest, but the bands deteriorated by Sunday. The predicted planetary A index for Sunday was 30, as reported in last week's bulletin. The actual planetary A index was 41, which was worse for absorption of HF signals.

Geomagnetic indices had been very low for days, but early Sunday UTC the planetary K index jumped from 2 to 6, and mid-latitude values went from 1 to 6, indicating a severe geomagnetic storm. This was Saturday evening in North America.

Another less severe geomagnetic storm began on Thursday November 1, as the interplanetary magnetic field tilted south. This lowered earth's resistance to solar wind. For more information on the interplanetary magnetic field check NASA's Space Weather site at http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html.

There were reports of fantastic conditions on 6 meters this week. W4AWI reported that 6 meters has never been this good, and he was working half the world from South Florida on October 30 and 31. He and his friends K4SUS and K2RTH worked Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, Siberia and Ukraine.

Average sunspot numbers this week were up 3 points over last, and average solar flux was off by 4.4 points.

Solar activity was high in September. Average daily solar flux in October was down by nearly 26 points and average sunspot numbers were off by nearly 32 compared to the previous month. The monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for January through October were 142.7, 131, 166.7, 163.6, 135.1, 196.7, 124.6, 159.4, 229.1 and 197.4. Average daily solar flux for January through October was 166.6, 147.2, 177.7, 178.2, 148.7, 173.7, 131.3, 163.1, 233.8 and 208.1. September had the high values for this year, although there was a peak in activity spread over the last part of March and first part of April. Average sunspot numbers for the 31 days from March 20 to April 19 was 195.6 and average solar flux for the same period was 197. This was quite a bit higher than the average for the two months, because the peak in activity straddled March and April.

For the next few days solar flux is expected to be around 225 or 230. Planetary A index predicted for Friday through Monday is 12, 10, 10 and 8.

Here are some path projections for this weekend's ARRL November CW Sweepstakes.

• From Seattle to California, 80 meters open all the time, strongest 0200-1400z, weakest 1900-2030z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0200-0930 and 1230-1330z, weakest 1830-2100z, 20 meters 1630-0100z, 15 meters 1900-2100z.
• From Seattle to Dallas, 80 meters 0000-1400z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0130-1230z, weakest 1730-2000z, 20 meters 1300-0530z (strongest later in the session), 15 meters 1500-0200z, 10 meters 1600-2330z.
• From Seattle to Atlanta, 80 meters 2330-1330z (very strong 0330- 1100z), 40 meters open always, best 0130-1200z, weakest 1700-2000z, 20 meters 1100-1330 and 1500-0630z, 15 meters 1400-0200z, 10 meters 1500-0000z.
• From Seattle to Cleveland, 80 meters 2330-1330z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0130-1130z, weakest 1700-2000z, 20 meters 1230-1400 and 1530-0400z, 15 meters 1430-0100z, 10 meters 1600- 2300z.
• From Seattle to Boston, 80 meters 2330-1230z, 40 meters 2100-1500z, 20 meters 1430-0030z, 15 meters 1630-2200z, 10 meters 1830-1900z.
• From Seattle to Hawaii, 80 meters 0300-1500z, 40 meters 0200-1700z, 20 meters 1530-0500z, 15 meters 1700-0300z, 10 meters 1830-0030z.
• From Seattle to Alaska, 80 meters 0000-1700z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0230-1430z, weakest 1900-2230z, 20 meters 1600-0430z, 15 meters 1730-0200z, 10 meters 1930-0000z.
• From California to Dallas, 80 meters 0000-1400z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0130-0330z, weakest 0600-1300 and 1700-2100z, 20 meters 1330-0530z, 15 meters 1500-0130z, 10 meters 1630-2300z.
• From California to Atlanta, 80 meters 0000-1300z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0130-1130z, weakest 1700-2000z, 20 meters open always, strongest 0130-0800z, weakest 1400-1500 and 1730-1930z, 15 meters 1400-0200z, 10 meters 1500-0000z.
• From California to Cleveland, 80 meters 2330-1330z, 40 meters always open, best 0130-1130z, weakest 1700-2000z, 20 meters always open, strongest 0100-0530z, weakest 1700-2000 and 0830-1000z, 15 meters 1400-0200z, 10 meters 1500-0000z.
• From California to Boston, 80 meters 0000-1230z, 40 meters 2230- 1430z, 20 meters 1400-0100z, 15 meters 1530-2230z, 10 meters 1700-2000z.
• From California to Hawaii, 80 meters 0300-1500z, 40 meters 0130- 1630z (strongest 0430-1330z), 20 meters 1600-0700z, 15 meters 1700-0300z, 10 meters 1800-0030z.
• From California to Alaska, 80 meters 0100-1530z, 40 meters open always, strongest 0300-1400z, weakest 1900-2130z, 20 meters 1430-1600 and 1730-0730z, 15 meters 1630-0330z, 10 meters 1730- 0130z.
• From Dallas to Atlanta, 80 meters open always, strongest 0000-1100z, weakest 1630-1900z, 40 meters always open, strongest 0030-1130z, weakest 1530-2000z, 20 meters 1400-0000z, 15 meters 1630-2030z.
• From Dallas to Cleveland, 80 meters 2130-1400z, 40 meters always open, strongest 0030-1100z, weakest 1630-1900z, 20 meters 1330- 0100z, 15 meters 1500-2200z, 10 meters 1730-1930z.
• From Dallas to Boston, 80 meters 2230-1230z, 40 meters always open, best 0000-1100z, weakest 1700-1830z, 20 meters 1230-0330z, 15 meters 1330-0000z, 10 meters 1500-2130z.
• From Dallas to Hawaii, 80 meters 0330-1330z, 40 meters 0230-1430z, 20 meters always open, best 0330-1030z, weakest 1900-2200z, 15 meters 1600-0300z, 10 meters 1700-0130z.
• From Dallas to Alaska, 80 meters 0030-1330z, 40 meters 2300-1430z (strongest 0230-1200z), 20 meters 1500-0400z, 15 meters 1730-0100z, 10 meters 1930-2300z.
• From Atlanta to Cleveland, 80 meters always open, best 2330-1100z, weakest 1600-1830z, 40 meters 1100-0400z, 20 meters 1430-2130z.
• From Atlanta to Boston, 80 meters 2030-1330z, 40 meters always open, best 2230-1100z, weakest 1600-1800z, 20 meters 1300-0000z, 15 meters 1500-2100z.
• From Atlanta to Hawaii, 80 meters 0330-1300z, 40 meters 0200-1400z, 20 meters always open, best 0400-1200z, weakest 1830-2300z, 15 meters 1600-0230z, 10 meters 1630-0100z.
• From Atlanta to Alaska, 80 meters 0000-1230z, 40 meters 2300-1400z, 20 meters 1400-1530 and 1700-0300z, 15 meters 1730-0000z, 10 meters 1930-2230z.
• From Cleveland to Boston, 80 meters open always, best 2300-1030z, weakest 1600-1730z, 40 meters 1200-0230z, 20 meters 1500-2100z.
• From Cleveland to Hawaii, 80 meters 0330-1300z, 40 meters 0200- 1400z, 20 meters open always, strongest 0300-1300z, weakest 2000-2300z, 15 meters 1600-0230z, 10 meters 1700-0000z.
• From Cleveland to Alaska, 80 meters 2330-1300z, 40 meters open always, best 0100-1200z, weakest 1700-2030z, 20 meters 1500-0200z, 15 meters 1800-2300z, 10 meters possibly 2000-2130z.
• From Boston to Hawaii, 80 meters 0330-1200z, 40 meters 0300-1300z, 20 meters 1230-1500, 1600-1700 and 2330-0200z, 15 meters 1630-2330z, 10 meters 1730-2200z.
• From Boston to Alaska, 80 meters 2300-1230z, 40 meters 2100-1430z (best 0000-1200z), 20 meters 1430-1600z and 1730-0130z, 15 meters 1800-2230z.
• From Hawaii to Alaska, 80 meters 0330-1630z, 40 meters 0230-1800z, 20 meters 1730-0600z, 15 meters 1830-1330z, 10 meters 2030-0130z.

Sunspot numbers for October 25 through 31 were 225, 239, 225, 229, 224, 205 and 212 with a mean of 222.7. 10.7 cm flux was 238.9, 236.5, 246.5, 227.2, 215.8, 226 and 221.1, with a mean of 230.3, and estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 6, 41, 16, 8 and 9 with a mean of 13.1.