ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
From Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
Fort Wayne, IN January 26, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K9LA
Tad, K7VVV, your regular solar reporter, is on vacation this week. This report was submitted by Carl, K9LA.
Solar activity over the past seven days, January 19 through 25, was mostly moderate due to C7 and M1 flares produced by Regions 9311, 9313, and 9325. The highest activity was seen on January 21, when Region 9313 produced an M7 flare.
Following the sun's 27-day rotation period, the 10.7 cm solar flux gradually rose from 153 at the beginning of the period to around 170 at the end of the period.
The planetary A index was 11 or less for most of the period, with a jump to 18 on January 21 and 24.
The most recent SSN (smoothed sunspot number) data for Cycle 23 indicates we may be seeing the peak of Cycle 23. The last four month's of data (March, April, May, and June 2000) shows the SSN to be hovering around 120. Only time will tell if this is just a plateau toward a slightly higher peak or indeed it's the peak.
Historically the SSN of a solar cycle of this magnitude will remain somewhat constant for a couple more years (as Cycle 20 did). So take advantage of the excellent worldwide propagation opportunities on the higher bands--15, 12 and 10 meters--while you can.