ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV:
February 11, 2000

ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA February 11, 2000
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose over the past week, with average solar flux up over 36 points and average sunspot numbers rising nearly 70 points compared to the previous week. Peak activity probably already occurred, with solar flux on Wednesday at 199 and sunspot numbers peaking on Tuesday at 198. Solar flux should decline for the near term, with the values for this Friday through Sunday at 176, 176 and 174.

The next low is forecast around February 22-25 with a solar flux value around 130. The next peak is predicted for March 8-9, with solar flux near 195. Based on the 27.5 day solar rotation, the following near term solar flux minimum would be around March 20-23 at 130.

There were a couple of active geomagnetic days on February 6 and 7, when the planetary A index was 24 and 25 and the maximum K index was 5. The College A index from Fairbanks was 43 and 38 on those days, with a peak K index of 7, because of the high latitude. KL7AK sent an email message asking about the College index. These readings, along with the planetary A index can be seen with your web browser at gopher://sec.noaa.gov/00/indices/DGD.

The predicted planetary A index for this Friday through Sunday is 15, 10 and 20. Conditions should be quiet for February 15-22, but active again around February 24 with predicted A index of 30. March 4 and 5 may also be active, and so may March 22 and 23.

Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9 were 149, 136, 153, 173, 169, 198 and 189 with a mean of 166.7. 10.7 cm flux was 154.1 167.4, 167.8, 177.7, 181.9, 173.6 and 199, with a mean of 174.5, and estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 9, 24, 25, 12 and 11, with a mean of 13.3.

Path projections for this week are from San Francisco, California.