ARLP053 Propagation de K7VVV:
December 30, 1999

ZCZC AP53
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA December 30, 1999
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP053
ARLP053 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar flux and sunspot numbers declined over the past week. Average solar flux for the past seven days was nearly 35 points lower than the previous seven. The decline is expected to continue through the weekend, with predicted solar flux for Thursday through Saturday of 140, 135 and 130. Solar flux should rise again around next Wednesday, and hit 150 around January 8, rising about 10 points per day and then peaking around 210 on January 14 or 15.

Planetary A index for Thursday through Saturday is predicted at 10, 15 and 25, so the New Year should yield some geomagnetic disturbances. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through Monday due to recurrent coronal hole effects. This should quiet down again around January 5.

WN6K wrote last week about his web site devoted to graphs of solar and geomagnetic indices at http://idt.net/~wngk19/index.html.

Also check an MSNBC story about geomagnetic storms in the new year at http://www.msnbc.com/news/251370.asp. NASA has an article at http://www.spacescience.com/newhome/headlines/ast29dec99_1.htm which talks about energy from solar wind squeezing the earth's magnetosphere.

N0ZOD, who is Section Emergency Coordinator for Minnesota ARES wrote this week to ask about propagation to the Far East on Friday night, when some US hams will be trying to contact hams in the area which first experiences the year 2000. Path projections for this week will concentrate on reaching the Far East from the United States on Friday.

Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29 were 112, 149, 141, 125, 109, 77 and 123 with a mean of 119.4. 10.7 cm flux was 198.4, 182.4, 178.4, 177, 161.7, 150.4 and 143.7, with a mean of 170.3, and estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 10, 2, 6, 7 and 7, with a mean of 6.7.

Path projections for this Friday will be from the West Coast, East Coast, and center of the continental United States to New Zealand, Australia and Japan on 80, 40, 20, 17 and 15 meters.

• From the West Coast to New Zealand, 80 meters 0700-1500z, 40 meters 0700-1530z, 20 meters 0500-1130z and 1500-1730z, 17 meters 1600-1830z and 0230-0330z, 15 meters 1900-2000z and 0130-0300z.
• From the West Coast to Australia, 80 meters 0930-1600z, 40 meters 0830-1600z, 20 meters 0730-1230z and 1530-1830z, 17 meters 1630-2100z and around 1130z, 15 meters 1700-0400z.
• From the West Coast to Japan, 80 meters around 0630z and then 0730-1630z, 40 meters 0530-1730z, 20 meters around 1630z and 2000-0430z and 0930-1130z, 17 meters 2130-0300z, 15 meters 2130-0200z.
• From the Midwest to New Zealand, 80 meters 0700-1400z, 40 meters 0630-1430z, 20 meters 0500-1030z and 1400-1600z, 17 meters 1430-1800z, 15 meters 1530-0200z.
• From the Midwest to Australia, 80 meters 0930-1430z, 40 meters 0900-1500z, 20 meters 0730-1030z and 1430-1700z, 17 meters 1530-1830z, 15 meters 1600-1930z.
• From the Midwest to Japan, 80 meters 0630-1530z, 40 meters 0530- 1630z, 20 meters 1530-1700z and 2100-0100z, 17 meters 2130-0030z, 15 meters 2130-2330z.
• From the East Coast to New Zealand, 80 meters 0700-1300z, 40 meters 0630-1330z, 20 meters 0430-0930z and 1230-1500z, 17 meters 1330-1630z, 15 meters 1400-1800z and 2300-0030z.
• From the East Coast to Australia, 80 meters 0930-1330z, 40 meters 0900-1400z, 20 meters 1400-1630z, 17 meters 1500-1900z, 15 meters 1500-2000z.
• From the East Coast to Japan, 80 meters 0700-1330z, 40 meters 0600-1430z, 20 meters 1400-1730z.