ARLP048 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 26, 1999

ZCZC AP48
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 25, 1999
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7VVV

This week's bulletin is out a day and a half early because of the Thanksgiving holiday and because ARRL headquarters will be closed on Friday. Your bulletin editor and W1AW staff also wanted to be sure to get this out before the CQ Worldwide CW DX Contest this weekend.

To recap the last week, average solar flux and sunspot numbers were down from the previous week, but geomagnetic indices were also quieter. While solar flux should decline through the weekend, at least geomagnetic conditions should be stable. Predicted solar flux for the period from November 25 through December 1 is 185, 180, 175, 165, 160, 150 and 150. The planetary A index for the same period is predicted at 10, 10, 8, 8, 10, 10 and 20. The latest prediction has the solar flux rising again and peaking around 230 on December 9. Keep in mind that predictions beyond the first three days are less certain, and of course at any time new activity could raise the numbers.

Sunspot numbers for November 18 through 24 were 194, 234, 225, 200, 179, 157 and 109 with a mean of 185.4. 10.7 cm flux was 217.9, 210, 204.3, 210.1, 192, 185.6 and 186.7, with a mean of 200.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 12, 12, 9, 10, 10, 15 and 19, with a mean of 12.4.

The path projection for this weekend is for the DX contest, and is from the center of the contiguous 48 United States.

• To Western Europe, 80 meters 2130-1030 UTC (best 0130-0630 UTC), 40 meters 1930-1200 UTC (best 2330-0730 UTC), 20 meters 1330-2130 UTC, 15 meters 1430-2000 UTC, 10 meters 1500-1800 UTC.
• To Eastern Europe, 80 meters 2200-0800 UTC (best 2330-0100 UTC and 0430-0530 UTC), 40 meters 2100-1030 UTC (best 0000-0500 UTC), 20 meters 1400-1930 UTC, 15 meters 1500-1700 UTC, 10 meters around 1530 UTC.
• To Southern Africa, 80 meters 2230-0330 UTC, 40 meters 2200-0430 UTC, 20 meters 1830-0030 UTC, 15 meters 1300-2300 UTC, 10 meters 1400-2130 UTC.
• To South America, 80 meters 2330-0930 UTC, 40 meters 2300-1000 UTC, 20 meters 1300-1430 UTC and 1930-0300 UTC, 15 meters 1330-0030 UTC, 10 meters 1400-2230 UTC.
• To the Caribbean, 80 meters 2230-1130 UTC, 40 meters 2030-1300 UTC, 20 meters 1300-0000 UTC, 15 meters 1400-2200 UTC, 10 meters 1530- 2000 UTC.
• To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1400 UTC, 40 meters 0900-1430 UTC, 20 meters 1400-1730 UTC, 15 meters 1530-0200 UTC, 10 meters 2130-0030 UTC.
• To Japan, 80 meters 0630-1500 UTC, 40 meters 0530-1500 UTC, 20 meters 1430-1600 UTC and 2030-0230 UTC, 15 meters 2100-0100 UTC, 10 meters 2200-2330 UTC.