ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 19, 1999

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 19, 1999
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar flux and sunspot numbers were up this week. Average solar flux was up almost 40 points from last week's average flux, and average sunspot numbers were up by almost 50 points. The most active geomagnetic day was Saturday, November 13, when the planetary A index was 31 and the K index rose as high as 5.

This weekend for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes expect a solar flux of 210, 200 and 200 on Friday through Sunday, and planetary A index of 20, 20 and 12 for the same three days. The absorption on Friday and Saturday could be a little rough for HF operators, but by Sunday it may die down.

After the weekend expect the solar flux to bottom out around 150 from November 26 until the end of the month, then rise above 200 around December 6. From November 29 to December 3 geomagnetic conditions should be stable, with another rough patch around December 4-6.

Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17 were 340, 324, 251, 232, 213, 231 and 248 with a mean of 262.7. 10.7 cm flux was 239.8, 231.9, 223.8, 218.8, 205.6, 233.4 and 221.3, with a mean of 224.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 23, 10, 31, 10, 6, 16 and 10, with a mean of 15.1.

Here are some path projections for the contest this weekend.

• From the Pacific Northwest to Southern California, 80 meters open all hours, best 0130-0300z, weakest 1900-2030z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0100-1400z, weakest 1830-2100z, 20 meters 1530-0300z, 15 meters 1700-0000z, 10 meters 2000-2100z. To Hawaii, 80 meters 0300-1600z, 40 meters 0130-1730z, 20 meters 1600-0430z, 15 meters 1730-0230z, 10 meters 1830-0030z. To the Northeast states, 80 meters 2300-1300z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0030-1130z, weakest 1700-1900z, 20 meters 1500-0000z, 15 meters 1630-2130z, 10 meters 1900-1930z. To Southeast states, 80 meters 2300-1430z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0100-1200z, weakest 1730-1930z, 20 meters 1530-0300z, 15 meters 1430-0100z, 10 meters 1530-2330z. To the center of the 48 contiguous US states, 80 meters 2230-1530z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0100-1300z, weakest 1730-2030z, 20 meters 1500-0230z, 15 meters 1600-0000z, 10 meters 1800-2230z.
• From Southern California to Hawaii, 80 meters 0230-1530z, 40 meters 0130-1800z, 20 meters 1600-1100z, 15 meters 1700-0300z, 10 meters 1800-0100z. To the Northeast states, 80 meters 2330-1300z, 40 meters 2100-1530z, 20 meters 1430-0030z, 15 meters 1530-2200z, 10 meters 1700-2000z. To the Southeast states, 80 meters 2300-1400z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1200z, weakest 1700-2000z, 20 meters open all hours, best 0030-0900z, 15 meters 1400-0200z, 10 meters 1500-2330z. To the center of the 48 states, 80 meters always open, best 0100-0230z and around 1300z, weakest 1800-2000z, 40 meters always open, strongest 0000-1400z, 20 meters 1430-0300z, 15 meters 1530-0000z, 10 meters 1700-2200z.
• From Hawaii to the Northeast states, 80 meters 0300-1230z, 40 meters 0230-1330z, 20 meters 1300-1330z and 1500-1700z and 2200-0130z, 15 meters 1700-2300z, 10 meters 1730-2130z. To the Southeast states, 80 meters 0300-1330z, 40 meters 0200-1430z, 20 meters open all hours, best 0330-1230z, 15 meters 1600-0230z, 10 meters 1700-0030z. To the center of the 48 states, 80 meters 0300-1430z, 40 meters 0200-1530z, 20 meters open always, strongest 0330-1030z, 15 meters 1630-0230z, 10 meters 1730-0030z.
• From the Northeast states to the Southeast states, 80 meters 80 meters always open, strongest 2300-1100z, 40 meters always open strongest 2300-1130z, 20 meters 1330-2200z, 15 meters 1600-1930z. To the center of the 48 states, 80 meters 2130-1330z, 40 meters always open, best 2330-1130z, 20 meters 1330-0030z, 15 meters 1430-2230z, 10 meters 1630-2030z.
• From the Southeast states to the center of the 48 states, 80 and 40 meters always open, best 2330-1200z, 20 meters 1400-0030z, 15 meters 1530-2200z, 10 meters possibly 1800-1900z.