ARLP024 Propagation de K7VVV:
June 11, 1999

ZCZC AP24
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA June 11, 1999
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7VVV

Average sunspot numbers were way up this past week, rising over 38 points compared to last week. Average solar flux was up about 4 points. You can see a good general trend in rising indices at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/ or at WM7D's solar resource site at http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/.

There has been a general downward trend in solar flux and sunspot numbers since the beginning of the year, but the monthly averages have recovered. The average solar flux for December through April was 150.1, 140.6, 141.9, 126.3 and 117.2, but in May it rose to 148.4. Average sunspot numbers for the same period were 81.9, 62.4, 66.1, 69.1 and 63.9, and for May it rose to 106.3.

For this weekend, Friday through Sunday, the predicted solar flux is 165, 160 and 160. The expected planetary A index for those days is 10, 12 and 8.

Beyond this weekend the flux will probably dip down, then rise above 160 again around June 27. Recurring coronal holes will probably cause a moderate rise in geomagnetic activity this Saturday, and again around June 14 and 21.

Sunspot Numbers for June 3 through 9 were 176, 209, 233, 238, 198, 192 and 204 with a mean of 207.1. 10.7 cm flux was 173.5, 170.9, 164, 167.9, 157.7, 156.5 and 165.2, with a mean of 165.1, and estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 4, 4, 4, 15 and 13, with a mean of 8.

Path projections this week are from Dallas, Texas. Next week will be Southern California's turn.

• To Europe, 80 meters, 0200-0400z, 40 meters 0100-0530z, 30 meters 0000-0730z, 20 meters 2100-1000z (best 0200-0300z), 17 meters 1930- 0200z.
• To Southern Africa, 80 meters 0100-0430z, 40 meters 0100-0500z, 30 meters 2330-0530z, 20 meters 2200-0200z and again at 0500-0700z, 17 meters 1930-0100z and again at 0500-0900z, 15 meters around 0000z.
• To the Caribbean, 80 meters 0000-1030z, 40 meters 2300-1200z, 30 meters 2100-1330z, 20 meters all hours, best 0130-1000z, weakest 1630-1800z, 17 meters 2200-1300z, 15 meters all hours except probably 1630-1730z, strongest 0130-0700z, 12 meters 1730-1900z and 0130-0500z, 10 meters possibly 0130-0400z.
• To South America, 80 meters 0100-1030z, 40 meters 0030-1100z, 30 meters 2300-1130z, 20 meters all hours, strongest 0130-1000z, weakest 1600-1830z, 17 meters 1030-0730z, best 0200-0730z, 15 meters 1300-0700z, 12 meters 1700-2100z and 0200-0500z, 10 meters possibly 0200-0430z.
• To Australia, 80 meters 0700-1200z, 40 meters 0600-1230z, 30 meters 0530-1330z, 20 meters 0400-1200z and 1330-1500z, 17 meters 0230- 0800z, 15 meters 0100-0730z, 12 meters 0100-0630z and 2100-2330z, 10 meters possibly 0330-0600z.
• To Japan, 80 meters 1030-1100z, 40 meters 0930-1200z, 30 meters 0830-1230z, 20 meters 0630-1430z, 17 meters 0300-0730z and 1100- 1830z, 15 meters possibly 0330-0730z or 1200-1300z.