ARLP012 Propagation de K7VVV:
March 19, 1999

ZCZC AP12
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12 ARLP012
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA March 19, 1999
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP012
ARLP012 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity was up slightly this week. Although average sunspot numbers were about the same, average solar flux was up about 12 points over last week. Expect solar activity to go lower in the near future. For this weekend, Friday though Sunday, flux values are expected at 145, 135 and 130, and Planetary A index should be 10, 8 and 7.

Beyond the weekend look for solar flux to drop to around 125 next week, and then begin to rise around the end of the month. Watch out for recurring geomagnetic disturbances around March 28, and a slowly rising solar flux to reach 150 around April 10.

Jim Secan of Northwest Research Associates sent along a nice URL for a web page he put up which shows predicted solar flux and planetary A index over 30 days. This is plotted against the previous 27 day rotation. You can see it at http://www.nwra.com/nwra/spawx/30df.html. Be sure to check out other interesting pages in the Space Weather section of that website.

In VHF news, on March 10 from 2130-2150z, WP4O in Puerto Rico heard faint 6 meter CW signals from ZL2KT. Four days later on Sunday he reported working a string of 6 and 2 meter stations in Uruguay and Argentina. On Saturday W1LP/MM in the Caribbean worked ZL2KT on 6 meters. WB8XX in Ohio worked several Argentinean stations on 6 meters that same weekend, as did a number of other North American stations. On Wednesday of this week, WA5IYX in San Antonio worked HK3YH in Columbia on 6 meter SSB.

Sunspot Numbers for March 11 through 17 were 95, 98, 107, 131, 126, 134 and 131 with a mean of 117.4. 10.7 cm flux was 137, 140.3, 144.4, 150.4, 150.1, 155.7 and 154.5, with a mean of 147.5, and estimated planetary A indices were 13, 10, 7, 13, 16, 4 and 5, with a mean of 9.7.

Here are some path projections for this weekend from Cleveland, Ohio:

• To Western Europe, 80 meters 2330-0800z, 40 meters 2130-0900z, 30 meters 1900-0800z and 1000-1200z, 20 meters 1200-0200z, 17 meters 1230-2300z, 15 meters 1300-2200z, 12 meters 1500-2030z, 10 meters 1730-1900z.
• To South Africa, 80 meters 2300-0415z, 40 meters 2230-0500z, 30 meters 2100-0600z, 20 meters 1900-0500z, 17 meters 1700-0130z, 15 meters 1230-0030z, 12 meters 1330-2300z, 10 meters 1500-2200z.
• To the Caribbean, 80 meters 2300-1100z, 40 meters 2000-1400z, 30 meters all hours, best 2330-1030z, weakest 1600-1800z, 20 meters all hours, best 2300- 1100z, weakest 1700z, 17 meters 1100-0300z, 15 meters 1200-0130z, 12 meters 1300- 0000z, 10 meters 1330-2300z.
• To South America, 80 meters 2330-1000z, 40 meters 2300-1030z, 30 meters 2200-1130z, 20 meters 2000-1400z, 17 meters 1130-0230z, 15 meters 1230-0100z, 12 meters 1300-2330z, 10 meters 1400-2130z.
• To Hawaii, 80 meters 0400-1230z, 40 meters 0330-1330z, 30 meters 0200-1500z, 20 meters 1300-0600z, 17 meters 1600-0300z, 15 meters 1700-0200z, 12 meters 1800-0000z, 10 meters 1900-2300z.
• To the South Pacific, 80 meters 0530-1200z, 40 meters 0500-1300z, 30 meters 0400- 1330z, 20 meters 0130-1530z, 17 meters 1700-2100z and 0000-0400z, 15 meters 1330- 1400z and 1700-0300z, 12 meters 1730-0130z, 10 meters 1730-2330z.
• To Australia, 80 meters 0800-1200z, 40 meters 0730-1230z, 30 meters 0630-1330z, 20 meters 0500-1530z, 17 meters 1300-1630z and 0300-0430z, 15 meters 2300-0300z, 12 meters 2000-0130z, 10 meters 2030-0030z.
• To Japan, 80 meters 0830-1200z, 40 meters 0800-1230z, 30 meters 0700-1400z, 20 meters 1300- 0300z, 17 meters 2030-0200z, 15 meters 2100-0100z, 12 meters 2130-2230z.
• To Central Asia, 80 meters 2330-0045z, 40 meters 2300-0130z, 30 meters 2130-0230z, 20 meters 1130-0230z, 17 meters 1330-2230z, 15 meters 1400-1700z.