ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 20, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar activity was down this week, with average solar flux off by 30 points and sunspot numbers down by over 24 points when compared to the previous week. Average geomagnetic activity was down also, but a week ago we were hit by a major geomagnetic storm that drove the planetary A index to 60, the Boulder A index to 36, and the College A index (from Alaska) to 90 on November 13. This was caused by a major proton flare, and while it had a devastating effect on HF propagation, VHF users enjoyed some interesting conditions.
KL7SIX awoke to find what he described as a wild auroral display, and he mentioned that the one a week previous was the biggest in 10 years. VE6NM in Alberta reported hearing VE7SKA the loudest, along with some VE8 beacons on six meters.
Other than auroral propagation, the big VHF news of the week was the Leonid meteor shower. The shower did not turn out to be the hoped for meteor storm, but many hams observed both the meteors and some interesting propagation modes. N7SO was out walking his dog in Tucson early in the morning, and saw a number of nice meteor displays. K0WLU in Minnesota at one point reported working 99 grids on 2 meters, with more probably following later. LY2MW in Lithuania worked 120 SSB and CW stations on 2 meters, with 2100 km his best DX.
N0LL in Kansas reported that the meteor shower actually peaked around 0500z on November 17, about 14 hours earlier than originally forecast. His biggest thrill was working Vermont on 2 meters, which was a path over 1400 miles. He also worked VE5LY on 222 MHz. N0JK writes that the consensus for the next Leonids peak is that it should be on November 19, 1999 around 0150z.
For the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this weekend, look for a solar flux around 110, with planetary A index on Saturday around 10 and then 5 on Sunday. After that look for flux values to rise above 120 after November 28 and peak around 145 on December 5 or 6.
Sunspot Numbers for November 12 through November 18 were 85, 97, 129, 110, 76, 92 and 72 with a mean of 94.4. 10.7 cm flux was 113.9, 118.1, 119, 131.1, 131, 120.8 and 114.8, with a mean of 121.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 4, 60, 38, 10, 7, 4 and 7, with a mean of 18.6.