ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA April 3, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar activity has dropped back a bit, but still remains fairly high. We have reached both the end of a month and the first quarter of 1998, and the average solar flux trend looks good. The last three quarters of 1997 had an average solar flux of 73.6, 82 and 94.3 and solar flux for the first quarter of 1998 averaged 98.8. Average solar flux for January and February was 93.4 for each month and for March it was 109.1.
For April look for solar flux to rise over the next week, peaking around 125 on April 9 and 10, then dropping back below 110 by April 18, then peaking below 120 around April 22 and 23. Active geomagnetic conditions may result in disturbed propagation around April 7 and again around April 17.
The author welcomes questions or comments via email at tad@ssc.com.
On a personal note, on Saturday, April 4 the author of this bulletin is ending a lifelong bachelorhood. A few weeks later while I'm on a honeymoon on Maui, KH6BZF will be filling in and writing ARLP017.
Sunspot Numbers for March 26 through April 1 were 77, 80, 81, 82, 66, 71 and 90 with a mean of 78.1. 10.7 cm flux was 110, 108.1, 103.9, 100.3, 107.5, 108.1 and 105.7, with a mean of 106.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 14, 17, 10, 10, and 5, with a mean of 11.3.