ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 16, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar activity was still depressed last week. On every day except Monday the 12th, the solar flux was below the 95 average for the previous 90 days. Solar flux is expected to rise over the next few days to just over 100, then drift back down after January 20. There are no known active regions on the Sun's surface expected to rotate into view that might change the depressed short term outlook. MUF values should also be low as a result.
Solar flux should reach a minimum in the low to mid eighties around February 1, then rise above 90 a week later.
Old region 8124 may cause some heightened geomagnetic instability over the next couple of days. Solar flux is predicted by NOAA Space Environment Service Center over January 16 to 18 to be 100, 102 and 102.
Sunspot Numbers for January 8 through 14 were 0, 0, 14, 51, 60, 54 and 43 with a mean of 31.7. 10.7 cm flux was 82.2, 81.6, 80.7, 84.8, 95.8, 90.4 and 93.9, with a mean of 87.1, and estimated planetary A indices were 7, 9, 6, 6, 4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.6.