ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV:
January 9, 1998

ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 9, 1998
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity was down over the past week, with average sunspot numbers about half what they were for the last week of 1997, and average solar flux down almost nine points. In addition there was a nasty geomagnetic disturbance on January 7 when the planetary A index shot up to 29. This was believed to have been caused by a coronal mass ejection from the sun on January 3. Average solar flux for the previous 90 days remained at 95, and the daily flux numbers were below this value over four out of seven days this week.

Currently the solar disk is devoid of any activity, but a small active region should rotate into view over the weekend. Solar flux is expected to remain in the mid-eighties until January 17 when it rises above 90 again. Flux levels should increase above 100 around January 22, then back below 90 around the end of the month. Over this weekend for the Japan International DX CW Contest look for solar flux around 84 with quiet geomagnetic conditions.

With winter upon us and lackluster solar activity look for less performance on the higher frequencies and to the low bands for DX. Ten meters will probably not pick up until this spring, or perhaps in the fall.

Sunspot Numbers for January 1 through 7 were 55, 50, 31, 30, 22, 23 and 0 with a mean of 30.1. 10.7 cm flux was 101.6, 101, 101.1, 90.7, 89.3, 87 and 84.9, with a mean of 93.7, and estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 2, 14, and 29, with a mean of 8.9.

Here are some path projections to Japan for the DX contest this weekend.

• From Seattle, check 80 meters from 0700-1730z, with best signals from 1000-1530z. 40 meters looks good from 0830-1130z and 1530- 1930z. Check 20 meters 2130-0100z.
• From Los Angeles check 80 meters 0700-1530z, 40 meters 0530-1730z, 20 meters 2130-0100z and 15 meters 2230-2345z. 10 meters might open around 2230-0000z.
• From the geographic center of the continental United States check 80 meters 0700-1500z, 40 meters 0600-1200z and 1200-1615z, and 20 meters around 2145-2315z.
• From Ohio check 80 meters 0715-1400z, 40 meters 0615-1030z and 1315-1530z. 20 meters may open around 2130z.
• From Atlanta check 80 meters 0700-1330z, 40 meters 0600-1400z, and 20 meters 2130-2230z.
• From Boston check 80 meters 0700-1315z, and 40 meters 0615-1100z, 1230-1500z and 2030-2230z.