ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA August 8, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7VVV
The week began with zero sunspot activity, but the sunspot number rose steadily to 45 on August 6 and 55 on August 7. Solar flux also increased toward the end of the week, and at 1700 UTC on August 7 at the Penticton, BC observatory it was 76.2, 77.9 at 2000 UTC, and 78.6 at 2300 UTC. Flux values are expected to peak over the weekend around 78, then fall back to the low seventies.
Solar flux is expected to stay in the mid seventies through the month of August, and we could see some slightly active geomagnetic conditions around August 27 due to recurrence. This is predicted because conditions were unsettled to active the last time the Sun was in that position relative to Earth, about 27 to 28 days before.
Expect 20 meters to still be the best band for DX, although if the flux gets above 80, some better propagation could occur on 15 and 17 meters. 10 and 12 meters should be poor, but look for interesting north-south propagation, particularly as we move toward the equinox, only about 6 weeks from now. 30 and 40 meter conditions should also improve around that time.
Dave Flarity , VE3DVE, wrote to comment that the same propagation information that appears on WWV at 18 minutes after every hour and at the 303-497-3235 phone number given in ARLP031, is also on the web at: gopher://proton.sec.noaa.gov:70/00/latest/wwv. It is updated very three hours.
Sunspot Numbers for July 31 through August 6 were 0, 0, 11, 27, 12, 39 and 45 with a mean of 19.1. 10.7 cm flux was 70.4, 71, 70.8, 72.2, 72.7, 74.8 and 76.8, with a mean of 72.7, and estimated planetary A indices were 19, 8, 5, 15, 8, 3, and 4, with a mean of 8.9.
This weekend is the Worked All Europe CW Contest, and here are some path projections to Europe from the United States:
From the Eastern U.S., 80 meters looks good from 0030z to 0445z, and 40 meters from 2300z to 0600z. 20 meters should open from 1230z to 0030z with the best period from 1900z to 2200z.
From mid-USA, check 80 meters from 0100z to 0430z, 40 meters from 0030z to 0545z, and 20 meters from 1930z to 0100z. 15 meters may open around 2030z to 2330z.
From the West Coast 80 meters may open briefly around 0400z. 40 meters looks good from 0230z to 0530z, and 20 meters from 2000z to 0100z and 0530z to 0800z. There is a chance of a 15 meter opening from 1600z to 0000z.
From Anchorage, Alaska 20 meters is the only real option. It looks good from 1430z to 0000z and better from 0500z to 0900z. There is a small chance of a 15 meter opening around 1600z to 2300z. 40 meters could open with weak signals around 0300z to 0500z.