ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA January 31, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de KT7H
This week's bulletin is really the same as last week's. There is just no solar cycle progress to report. Solar flux is still in the low seventies, and is expected to remain that way over the next month. Of course this forecast of low activity is based upon the previous solar rotation, so it only means that there has been no activity over the past month that we can use to predict additional effects when it rotates into view again.
There was a geomagnetic disturbance last week, with the maximum effect on January 28 when the K indices went as high as five and the planetary A index was 21. Based on this we could see some unsettled conditions again around February 23.
The lack of sunspots has been disappointing. Most observers expected more activity out of the next solar cycle by now. But this is only based upon activity over previous cycles, so all we can do is wait.
Sunspot Numbers for January 23 through 29 were 0, 12, 11, 12, 11, 11 and 16 with a mean of 10.4. 10.7 cm flux was 73.4, 74.2, 73.1, 74.1, 73.5, 72.9 and 74.6, with a mean of 73.7. Estimated planetary A indices for the same period were 3, 3, 6, 13, 13, 21, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.